{"id":469,"date":"2025-10-31T12:15:02","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T09:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/?p=469"},"modified":"2025-10-31T12:15:02","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T09:15:02","slug":"altin-yukselis-surecini-tamamladi-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/?p=469","title":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcrecini tamamlad\u0131 m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Vatanda\u015f, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve Hazine’de toplam 5 bin ton alt\u0131n olunca alt\u0131n\u0131n fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimleri T\u00fcrkiye’yi \u00e7ok fazla ilgilendirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Son olarak alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 95 y\u00fckseldikten sonra ons baz\u0131nda 4 bin 391 dolarl\u0131k zirve noktas\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fc\u015ferek 3 bin 938 dolara inmesi soru i\u015faretlerini art\u0131rd\u0131. \u00d6nce alt\u0131n\u0131 neden y\u00fckseldi\u011fini hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m. Ba\u015fta merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezerv olarak alt\u0131n biriktirmesi bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra jeopolitik riskler, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Fed’den daha fazla faiz indirimi beklentisi ve hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda d\u00fczeltme endi\u015feleri alt\u0131n\u0131 tarihi zirveye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n

Habert\u00fcrk’\u00fcn haberine g\u00f6re, zirve noktas\u0131ndan itibaren ABD-\u00c7in ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri i\u00e7in tarih belirlenmesi ve ABD borsalardaki y\u00fckseli\u015f alt\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 kesti. Kar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini veya tekrar y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine girilip girilmeyece\u011fini anlamak i\u00e7in biraz tarihe bakmakta fayda var. Alt\u0131n\u0131n daha \u00f6nceki 3 y\u00fckseli\u015finin ortalama s\u00fcresi bin 62 g\u00fcn. Son y\u00fckseli\u015fte ise g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131 735. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015fe en yak\u0131n olan\u0131 1976 ile 1980 aras\u0131ndaki 856 g\u00fcn. Yani tarihe bakarsak alt\u0131n\u0131n ortalama 327 g\u00fcn daha y\u00fckselmesi beklenebilir. Veya 1980’i baz al\u0131rsak 121 g\u00fcn daha var. Tabi ba\u015fta merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere \u015fartlar\u0131n farkl\u0131 oldu\u011funu tekrar vurgulayal\u0131m.<\/p>\n

HIZLI Y\u00dcKSEL\u0130\u015e 2011’E BENZET\u0130L\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

Di\u011fer yandan bu h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f 2011’e benzetiliyor ayr\u0131ca 1979’daki y\u00fczde 120’yi a\u015fan y\u00fckseli\u015fi de baz al\u0131rsak daha gidecek yol var gibi dursa da 2011’deki gibi 6 y\u0131l dinlenmesi de olas\u0131l\u0131k dahilinde.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f endi\u015feleri art\u0131r\u0131yor. Zira alt\u0131n\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 3 bin 500 dolar\u0131ndan ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4 bin dolara sadece 36 g\u00fcnde \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, \u00f6nceki ons ba\u015f\u0131na 500 dolar art\u0131\u015fl\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ortalama 1.036 g\u00fcne k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 kal\u0131yor. Bu son hareketin g\u00f6receli olarak sadece y\u00fczde 14’e ve g\u00fcnde ortalama 50 baz puana denk gelmesi 2011’deki benzerli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

SPEK\u00dcLAT\u0130F ALIMLAR DA DOYMAMI\u015e G\u00d6R\u00dcN\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

Uzmanlar d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktalar\u0131n\u0131n (2022-2025 gibi) temel anlamdan ziyade psikolojik ve teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan daha fazla \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ve dikkat edilmesi gereken tek \u015fey alt\u0131n\u0131n tek bir y\u0131ldaki performans\u0131 de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin uzunlu\u011fu ve alt\u0131nda yatan etkenler.<\/p>\n

A\u011fustos sonundan bu yana 21 milyar dolar artan ve y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana toplam de\u011feri 67 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kan alt\u0131n ETF’deki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da dikkat \u00e7ekici oldu\u011funu biz de vurgulayal\u0131m. Verilere g\u00f6re alt\u0131n ETF’leri bu y\u0131l 638 ton ekleyerek toplam varl\u0131klar\u0131 3.857 tona \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; bu da Kas\u0131m 2020’deki 3.929 tonluk zirvenin y\u00fczde 2 alt\u0131nda. Ayr\u0131ca, alt\u0131n ETF’leri son 500 ABD dolar\u0131\/ons art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca 128 ton y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

ALTININ KAR\u015eISINDAK\u0130 ETKENLER<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

Alt\u0131n tahsislerinin hedeflere yakla\u015fmas\u0131, stratejik yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n portf\u00f6ylerini yeniden dengelemelerine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n i\u00e7in teknik g\u00f6stergeler – RSI 90’\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve fiyatlar 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20’sinden fazla \u00fczerinde – a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve bu durum k\u0131sa vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131r hale getirmeye y\u00f6neltebilir.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n nakit aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131, alt\u0131n gibi y\u00fcksek performans g\u00f6steren varl\u0131klar\u0131n tasfiyesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Son d\u00f6nemdeki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 direncine ra\u011fmen, dolardaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hala bir tehdit olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir mevsimsel d\u00f6nemde t\u00fcketici talebini muhtemelen azaltacak. Jeoekonomik risklerin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi, sermayenin varl\u0131klar \u00fczerindeki riske kaymas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n

Daha geni\u015f bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 taban\u0131: D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli ETF’lerde, 1 onsluk COMEX vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ve \u00c7in ve Hindistan’daki d\u00fczenleyici de\u011fi\u015fikliklerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme, kurumsal stratejik tahsislere kap\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor. ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n laik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan potansiyel \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 te\u015fvik ediyor.<\/p>\n

ABD’nin kal\u0131c\u0131 politika belirsizli\u011fi ve artan jeopolitik gerilimler. Enflasyon ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, durgunluk riskini art\u0131rabilir<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 95 y\u00fckseldikten sonra ons baz\u0131nda 4 bin 391 dolarl\u0131k zirve noktas\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fc\u015ferek 3 bin 938 dolara indi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":470,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[6,214,7,310],"class_list":["post-469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guncel","tag-altin","tag-altin-fiyatlari","tag-ekonomi","tag-gram-altin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=469"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/470"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.habereditoru.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}